2014 Illinois Senate - Oberweis vs. Durbin

Race Analysis

9/8/14 -- Durbin's poll numbers have been weaker than expected, although he's still at 50 percent. While it is still highly unlikely that he'll actually lose this race, the polls counsel at least putting it on the "watch list."

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From the Civil War through the early 20th century, Illinois consistently voted a few points more Republican than the rest of the country. That ended when the Democrats nominated Al Smith in 1928, which drew white ethnics to the voting booth in droves; they kept voting, and from that year through 1976 the state was consistently at the center of American politics. Democrats drew their strength from Chicago, while Republicans dominated downstate and the suburban collar counties.

That changed during the 1990s, when Bill Clinton’s appeal to suburban soccer moms moved the northern suburbs toward the Democrats. Illinois became a solidly blue state, to the point where a senator facing serious ethics allegations (Carol Moseley Braun) lost only by a few points (to Peter Fitzgerald) in 1998.

Dick Durbin stood at the crossroads of this transformation, a downstate Democrat who increasingly found his base in the upscale suburbs of Chicago. He won his Senate seat in 1996. In a race that many expected to be competitive, Durbin easily won after Republicans nominated staunchly conservative Al Salvi over the more moderate Lt. Gov. Bob Kustra. Durbin is being challenged by Assembleyman Jim Oberweis. A competitive race is not expected.