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<title><![CDATA[Brett Parker - Articles - RealClearPolitics]]></title><link>http://www.RealClearPolicy.com/authors/rss/archive/36086.xml</link><description><![CDATA[Brett Parker]]></description><category domain="36086">Author</category><item>
							<title><![CDATA[The Issues That Will Decide the Midterm Election]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/11/02/the_issues_that_will_decide_the_midterm_election_148410.html</link>
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							<pubDate>Wed, 02 Nov 2022 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[As we approach the conclusion of the 2022 election season, the political environment appears to have drifted halfway between early-year extremes. Prior to the Supreme Court'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s decision on abortion rights, the GOP seemed poised to ride economic issues '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('“').';' particularly inflation...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Do Progressives Pay the Price for Progressive Legislation?]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2021/11/21/do_progressives_pay_the_price_for_progressive_legislation_146761.html</link>
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							<pubDate>Sun, 21 Nov 2021 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Internal divisions within the Democratic Party over the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the $1.85 trillion '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('œ').';'Build Back Better'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('�').';' bill run even deeper than the contentious congressional party debate. The issue is whether the progressive agenda, if passed, can garner enough...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[What Undermined Biden's Popularity?]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2021/10/29/what_undermined_bidens_popularity_146649.html</link>
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							<pubDate>Fri, 29 Oct 2021 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[On June 1, Joe Biden'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s job approval rating was 53.3% in the RealClearPolitics polling average, with a net approval of plus-11.3. In modern politics, plus-11.3 net approval is impressive. Donald Trump never posted a number that high, and Barack Obama only did so at the very beginning...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Dems Say Not Leaning Left Will Hurt in '22. Data Say Otherwise.]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2021/03/03/dems_say_not_leaning_left_will_hurt_in_22_data_say_otherwise.html</link>
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							<pubDate>Wed, 03 Mar 2021 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[President Biden faces pressure from the progressive wing of his party on issues ranging from the $15 minimum wage to the $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill to climate change legislation. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' told the'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' Washington Post'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' in mid-January that Biden'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s stimulus...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Biden/Clinton vs. Trump: Comparing 2020/2016 Polling 'Gaps']]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/08/20/bidenclinton_vs_trump_comparing_20202016_polling_gaps_144006.html</link>
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							<pubDate>Thu, 20 Aug 2020 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[In mid-August of 2016, YouGov polling placed Hillary Clinton six percentage points ahead of Donald Trump among registered voters (41%-35%). Four years later, Joe Biden also leads Trump in mid-August YouGov polling -- only this time, the lead is about 10 points. Everyone knows what...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[YouGov Polling: Biden Skeptics Are Moderate Democrats]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/07/07/yougov_polling_biden_skeptics_are_moderate_democrats_143640.html</link>
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							<pubDate>Tue, 07 Jul 2020 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[At the end of March, President Trump was on a roll: Having been acquitted by the Senate in February, he was taking credit for a coronavirus lockdown that '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('œ').';'saved 2 million lives,'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('�').';' in his estimate, and was an odds-on favorite to win the 2020 election (a plus-seven-point margin in...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[The 'Trump Bump' and Its Likely Demise]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/16/the_trump_bump_and_its_likely_demise_____142949.html</link>
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							<pubDate>Thu, 16 Apr 2020 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[President Trump'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s recent four-to-five percentage point bump in job approval can be viewed as a '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('œ').';'rally round the flag'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('�').';' phenomenon. Surges in a president'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s job approval rating have often been seen during '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' times of national crisis or external attack, including the 1962...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Within Parties, Trump's Crisis Ratings Vary Widely: Week 2]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/31/within_parties_trumps_crisis_ratings_vary_widely_week_2.html</link>
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							<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2020 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[On March 25 we wrote that both partisan affiliation and intra-party ideology affected the public'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s reaction to the coronavirus pandemic. We were not surprised by the partisan differences, given polarization, but we were surprised by the extent of intra-party differences. In the...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Within Parties, Trump's Pandemic Ratings Vary Widely]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/25/within_parties_trumps_pandemic_ratings_vary_widely.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/25/within_parties_trumps_pandemic_ratings_vary_widely.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Wed, 25 Mar 2020 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Everyone knows that Democrats and Republicans have polarized views about politics and policy; but in a national crisis like coronavirus, you might expect the differences to diminish. Not in this age of polarization. The latest YouGov poll, conducted March 15 -17, showed that 61% of...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Dems' Roller Coaster Steadies as Center &amp; Center-Left Take Over]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/18/dems_roller_coaster_steadies_as_center__center-left_take_over_142699.html</link>
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							<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2020 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[For nearly a year, the Democratic Party'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s primary season featured unexpected surges and declines. To pundits, and many rank-and-file Democrats, it seemed like a wild ride, with capricious rises and falls. We find, however, that the change in fortunes of the Democratic field can be...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Assessing the Prospects for a Brokered Convention]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/02/13/assessing_the_prospects_for_a_brokered_convention_142386.html</link>
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							<pubDate>Thu, 13 Feb 2020 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[When Ted Cruz and John Kasich finally suspended their campaigns for the Republican nomination in May of 2016, Donald Trump had collected 40.2% of primary votes. This total fell well short of a majority and represented the fourth-lowest total of any nominee in the modern era at the time...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Examining Elizabeth Warren's Slide]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/12/18/examining_elizabeth_warrens_slide_141987.html</link>
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							<pubDate>Wed, 18 Dec 2019 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[In early May of 2019, Elizabeth Warren found herself trailing Joe Biden in the RealClearPolitics polling average by over 33 percentage points (41.4% to 8%). Over the next three months she began a rapid rise. By Sept. 9, she had overtaken Biden in the weekly YouGov poll to become the...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[The Impact of Voter Second Choices as 2020 Dems Drop Out]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/11/14/the_impact_of_voter_second_choices_as_2020_dems_drop_out_141732.html</link>
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							<pubDate>Thu, 14 Nov 2019 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[As the Democratic field for president thins out, most supporters of the dropouts will pick another candidate. That prospect raises the question of whether these newly available voters will flock to the front-runners or boost the chances of one of the also-rans. To gain insight into this...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Poll: Dem Voters Span Diverse Views, Benefiting Biden]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/09/24/poll_dem_voters_span_diverse_views_benefiting_biden_141324.html</link>
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							<pubDate>Tue, 24 Sep 2019 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The recent Democratic Party debates have prompted pundits and prognosticators to wonder how far left the nominee can veer and still unseat President Trump in November 2020.
In a recent piece, David Leonhardt of the New York Times argued that instead of focusing on issues that expose...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Biden Is Still King of the Moderates -- But Will It Last?]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/07/25/biden_is_still_king_of_the_moderates_--_but_will_it_last_140861.html</link>
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							<pubDate>Thu, 25 Jul 2019 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Throughout this primary season, poll after poll has indicated that Democratic voters are overwhelming focused on finding a candidate who can make Donald Trump a one-term president. By a 2-to-1 ratio, likely primary voters place beating Trump above selecting a nominee who shares their...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Flipping the House: What '94, '06, '10 Turnout Tells Us]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/11/06/flipping_the_house_what_94_06_10_turnout_tells_us_138561.html</link>
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							<pubDate>Tue, 06 Nov 2018 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Much of the press coverage of the 2018 House elections has focused on identifying the most competitive House races and attempting to predict their results. Some academic models have also adopted this tactic, basing their conclusions on an analysis of highly contested districts. Still...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Will 2018 Be a Wave Election?]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/10/03/will_2018_be_a_wave_election_138232.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/10/03/will_2018_be_a_wave_election_138232.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Wed, 03 Oct 2018 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[If we define off-year '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('œ').';'wave'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('�').';' elections as a loss of at least 30 seats for the incumbent presidents'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';' political party, there have been nine such elections since 1932 '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('“').';' though in five of them control of Congress did not change hands. But Democrats don'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'t need 30...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Trump and Women, Independents: Worrisome Signs]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/03/22/trump_and_women_independents_worrisome_signs_136593.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/03/22/trump_and_women_independents_worrisome_signs_136593.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 22 Mar 2018 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Election results from Virginia, Alabama and last week'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s special election in Pennsylvania'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s 18th Congressional District show that President Trump appears to have considerable weakness among women voters, particularly those with a college education. In addition, our August 24,...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Trump Gains Among Independents, Republicans After Tax Bill]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/02/02/trump_gains_among_independents_republicans_after_tax_bill_136172.html</link>
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							<pubDate>Fri, 02 Feb 2018 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Donald Trump won the presidency on the back of strong support from Republicans and a substantial margin among Independents. After the failure to repeal the Affordable Care Act, his status declined among Independents and, to a lesser extent, Republicans. Inside the White House, the hope...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[GOP, Independent Voters Set High Bar for Impeachment]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/08/25/gop_independent_voters_set_high_bar_for_impeachment.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/08/25/gop_independent_voters_set_high_bar_for_impeachment.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 25 Aug 2017 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Second in a two-part series
In July 2016, Donald Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by as many as 10 percentage points in general election polling, and some pundits began to wonder if the GOP would consider abandoning him for a more palatable nominee. Such speculation turned out to be...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Trump Losing the Supporters He Needs Most: Independents]]></title>
							<link>https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/08/24/trump_losing_the_supporters_he_needs_most_independents_134825.html</link>
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							<pubDate>Thu, 24 Aug 2017 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Brett Parker</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The first of two parts
Donald Trump was successful as a presidential candidate in part because he carried the Independent vote. In recent years, Democrats have enjoyed roughly a five-percentage-point lead over Republicans in terms of partisan identification, which means that to win,...]]></description>
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