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<title><![CDATA[Geoffrey Skelley - Articles - RealClearPolitics]]></title><link>http://www.RealClearPolicy.com/authors/rss/archive/30739.xml</link><description><![CDATA[Geoffrey Skelley]]></description><category domain="30739">Author</category><item>
							<title><![CDATA[How This Debt Ceiling Debate Could End]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2-ways-this-debt-ceiling-debate-ends/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2-ways-this-debt-ceiling-debate-ends/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Wed, 15 Feb 2023 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[And why it could be either better or worse than 2011.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Have Latinos Really Moved Toward The GOP?]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/have-latinos-really-moved-toward-the-republican-party/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/have-latinos-really-moved-toward-the-republican-party/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Mon, 14 Feb 2022 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[In the 2020 election, the rightward shift among Latino voters raised eyebrows. Post-election surveys have disagreed about the exact split in the Latino vote, but it appears around 3 in 5 (or slightly more) voted for President Biden over then-President Donald Trump. Yet many of those same...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[A Very Early Look at the 2022 Governor Races]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-very-early-look-at-the-2022-governor-races/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-very-early-look-at-the-2022-governor-races/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 30 Mar 2021 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The 2022 midterm elections will decide not only who controls the U.S. Senate and House but, crucially, which party governs 36 of the nation'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s 50 states. These contests will'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' play a key role'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' in determining the policies that states adopt while'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' also serving'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' as'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' a launchpad'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';'...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Why 2020 Wasn't a Blowout - and 2024 Won't Be Either]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2021 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[President Biden'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' has focused on a message'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' of unity early in his presidency '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' a vision that will be hard to achieve. There are multiple factors working against him, including'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' the growing antipathy Democrats and Republicans feel toward one another'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' and the increased inability of...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Why The Suburbs Have Shifted Blue]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-suburbs-have-shifted-blue/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-suburbs-have-shifted-blue/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 17 Dec 2020 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[President Trump spent the last few months of the presidential campaign appealing to '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' and sometimes even pleading with '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' suburban voters. At a rally in Pennsylvania in October,'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' Trump called out suburban women specifically, saying that '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('œ').';'they should like me more than...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Is the Electoral Map Changing?]]></title>
							<link>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/swing-states-2020-election/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/swing-states-2020-election/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 27 Aug 2020 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[With President Trump and Joe Biden on the ballot, will Iowa or Ohio move further right in 2020? Will Georgia and Texas move further left? We looked at how much more Republican or Democratic 16 swing states have been relative to the country since 2000.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[How Important Is the Economy Still for Trump's Reelection?]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-the-economy-still-the-most-important-thing-for-trumps-reelection/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-the-economy-still-the-most-important-thing-for-trumps-reelection/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 07 Apr 2020 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The U.S. economy'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' lost 700,000 jobs'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' in March, while more than 10 million Americans'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' filed unemployment claims. The economy is tumbling in the wake of the coronavirus, and now there'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s a very real possibility that we'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'re on the verge of a recession.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[CA Special Election Will Test Dem Strength in Suburbs]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-special-election-for-katie-hills-seat-will-test-democrats-strength-in-the-suburbs/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-special-election-for-katie-hills-seat-will-test-democrats-strength-in-the-suburbs/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 26 Nov 2019 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The California presidential primary on March 3 won't be the only hotly contested race on the Golden State ballot.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Why Sessions Might Struggle to Win Back His Old Senate Seat]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/jeff-sessions-might-struggle-to-win-back-his-old-senate-seat/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/jeff-sessions-might-struggle-to-win-back-his-old-senate-seat/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 12 Nov 2019 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Trump could end up endorsing his opponent in the runoff, making it tougher for Sessions to attract enough additional support to win a majority.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Why the Beto O'Rourke Campaign Failed]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-beto-orourkes-pivot-didnt-work/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-beto-orourkes-pivot-didnt-work/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Sat, 02 Nov 2019 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Beto O'Rourke has played games with the media before, but he got a last laugh of sorts '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' at least a wistful chuckle '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' by dropping out of the presidential race'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('¦').';']]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[What's Behind Warren's Rise in the Polls?]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-behind-warrens-rise-in-the-polls/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-behind-warrens-rise-in-the-polls/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Mon, 07 Oct 2019 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[It seems as if Warren's appeal is broadening beyond her ideological base of very liberal supporters.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Why So Many House Republicans Are Retiring]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-so-many-house-republicans-are-retiring-and-more-could-be-on-the-way/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-so-many-house-republicans-are-retiring-and-more-could-be-on-the-way/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 08 Aug 2019 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The retirements have come from very different corners of the GOP.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Which Matchup Will Be the Storyline of the 2nd Dem Debate?]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-matchup-will-be-the-storyline-of-the-second-debate/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-matchup-will-be-the-storyline-of-the-second-debate/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 19 Jul 2019 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Who knew picking 20 names out of a box could be so entertaining? In a live draw held on Thursday, CNN selected the lineups for the second Democratic presidentia'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('¦').';']]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[James Is a Strong Recruit for Republicans in MI Senate Race]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-just-scored-a-strong-recruit-in-the-michigan-senate-race/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-just-scored-a-strong-recruit-in-the-michigan-senate-race/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Mon, 10 Jun 2019 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[In the battle for control of the U.S. Senate in 2020, Republicans got some welcome news Thursday when Republican John James announced that he would challenge De'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('¦').';']]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Is Socialism Still An Effective Political Bogeyman?]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-socialism-still-an-effective-political-bogeyman/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-socialism-still-an-effective-political-bogeyman/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Wed, 13 Feb 2019 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[If President Trump'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s most recent State of the Union address is any indication, socialism could be at the forefront of his 2020 campaign rhetoric.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Donald Trump's Path to 1,237]]></title>
							<link>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/assessing-trumps-path-to-1237/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/assessing-trumps-path-to-1237/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 24 Mar 2016 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[About a month ago, after Donald Trump won the South Carolina primary and all of its delegates, we headlined a piece '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('œ').';'The Hour is Growing Late to Stop Trump.'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('�').';' Well, the hour has grown later, and we have to ask the question: Has Trump been stopped?Certainly not. And a look ahead...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[10 Factors That Will Determine Next President]]></title>
							<link>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ten-factors-that-will-determine-the-next-president/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ten-factors-that-will-determine-the-next-president/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Sat, 26 Dec 2015 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Here'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s a thought experiment: What if Republicans nominated the 2012 version of Mitt Romney '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' same fundraising, same baggage, same everything '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' at their 2016 convention? What sort of odds would that candidate have in 2016?'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' We suspect the candidate would be a small...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[The Key to Winning Down-Ballot Races]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/down-ticket-races-2016-213138</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/down-ticket-races-2016-213138]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Mon, 14 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Down-ballot races are increasingly decided by who wins the White House. To grasp this fact, it'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s best to focus on two numbers: 6 percent and .781.The first number is the total percentage of House districts that voted for different parties for president and for U.S. House in 2012. It...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Eight Factors That Matter in 2016 Race]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/the-truth-about-the-2016-race-213121</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/the-truth-about-the-2016-race-213121]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 08 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The rise of Donald Trump might represent some massive sea change in American politics'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';'but it'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s far more likely he will fade long before the primary season does. Thanks to Trump, August was a blockbuster month for the political press, but most of what is happening now won'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'t...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[11 Angles on the Electoral College]]></title>
							<link>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-map-11-angles-on-the-electoral-college/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-map-11-angles-on-the-electoral-college/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Sat, 09 May 2015 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Hillary's Real Opponent: Obama]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/04/obama-approval-ratings-swing-states-117019.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/04/obama-approval-ratings-swing-states-117019.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 17 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Geoffrey Skelley</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The two factors that might be most vital to Hillary Clinton'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s chances'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';'the identity of the eventual Republican nominee and the standing of President Obama'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';'are elements over which she has little influence. It'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s the second factor, Obama'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s job approval rating, that...]]></description>
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