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<title><![CDATA[Kyle Kondik - Articles - RealClearPolitics]]></title><link>http://www.RealClearPolicy.com/authors/rss/archive/25437.xml</link><description><![CDATA[Kyle Kondik]]></description><category domain="25437">Author</category><item>
							<title><![CDATA[Forget About Ohio as Presidential Bellwether]]></title>
							<link>https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/08/29/forget-about-ohio-its-fools-gold-00113224</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/08/29/forget-about-ohio-its-fools-gold-00113224]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 29 Aug 2023 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Kyle Kondik</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The talk about its reemergence as a key presidential battleground is misplaced.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Trump Holds Key to Republican House Chances]]></title>
							<link>http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-republicans-house-chances-its-on-trump/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-republicans-house-chances-its-on-trump/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 07 Feb 2020 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Kyle Kondik</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Trump is crucial to that path: A highly-nationalized presidential election that devastates the roster of Democrats in Trump-won and marginal Clinton-won House seats would represent the best possible Republican outcome.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[The Democratic Race: Biden 2020 as Romney 2012]]></title>
							<link>http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-democratic-race-biden-2020-as-romney-2012/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-democratic-race-biden-2020-as-romney-2012/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 06 Dec 2019 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Kyle Kondik</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Biden'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s endurance at the top of the Democratic race is reminiscent of Mitt Romney'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s endurance in the 2012 Republican race.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Less Than a Year Out, Race for House Control Is a Coin Flip]]></title>
							<link>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2018-less-than-a-year-out-race-for-control-is-a-coin-flip/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2018-less-than-a-year-out-race-for-control-is-a-coin-flip/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Sat, 02 Dec 2017 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Kyle Kondik</author>
							<description><![CDATA[We didn'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'t see many House Democrats rooting for Donald Trump to win the general election in 2016, but the simple fact of his election made a Democratic House takeover much more likely in the 2018 midterm just because of the longstanding trend for the presidential party to lose ground...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Donald Trump's Path to 1,237]]></title>
							<link>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/assessing-trumps-path-to-1237/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/assessing-trumps-path-to-1237/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 24 Mar 2016 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Kyle Kondik</author>
							<description><![CDATA[About a month ago, after Donald Trump won the South Carolina primary and all of its delegates, we headlined a piece '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('œ').';'The Hour is Growing Late to Stop Trump.'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('�').';' Well, the hour has grown later, and we have to ask the question: Has Trump been stopped?Certainly not. And a look ahead...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[10 Factors That Will Determine Next President]]></title>
							<link>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ten-factors-that-will-determine-the-next-president/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ten-factors-that-will-determine-the-next-president/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Sat, 26 Dec 2015 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Kyle Kondik</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Here'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s a thought experiment: What if Republicans nominated the 2012 version of Mitt Romney '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' same fundraising, same baggage, same everything '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' at their 2016 convention? What sort of odds would that candidate have in 2016?'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' We suspect the candidate would be a small...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[How Democrats Could Win the House. Really.]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/11/how-democrats-could-win-the-house-213318</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/11/how-democrats-could-win-the-house-213318]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2015 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Kyle Kondik</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Whatever happens in the White House a year from now, it'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s an article of faith that not much will change in the House, where Republicans have a seeming lock on the majority.'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' But wait: the ascendancy of Donald Trump and Ben Carson just might have cracked the window open.'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' It'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Bevin Has Squandered His Edge in KY]]></title>
							<link>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/kentucky-governor-with-a-month-to-go-bevin-has-squandered-his-edge/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/kentucky-governor-with-a-month-to-go-bevin-has-squandered-his-edge/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 2015 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Kyle Kondik</author>
							<description><![CDATA[For months we'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'ve argued that Kentucky'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s increasing lean toward the Republican Party and the state'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s antipathy toward President Barack Obama gave businessman Matt Bevin, the Republican nominee, a generic edge in the open Kentucky gubernatorial race. While Bevin is not a...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[The Key to Winning Down-Ballot Races]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/down-ticket-races-2016-213138</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/down-ticket-races-2016-213138]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Mon, 14 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Kyle Kondik</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Down-ballot races are increasingly decided by who wins the White House. To grasp this fact, it'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s best to focus on two numbers: 6 percent and .781.The first number is the total percentage of House districts that voted for different parties for president and for U.S. House in 2012. It...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Eight Factors That Matter in 2016 Race]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/the-truth-about-the-2016-race-213121</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/the-truth-about-the-2016-race-213121]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 08 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Kyle Kondik</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The rise of Donald Trump might represent some massive sea change in American politics'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';'but it'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s far more likely he will fade long before the primary season does. Thanks to Trump, August was a blockbuster month for the political press, but most of what is happening now won'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'t...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[11 Angles on the Electoral College]]></title>
							<link>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-map-11-angles-on-the-electoral-college/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-map-11-angles-on-the-electoral-college/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Sat, 09 May 2015 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Kyle Kondik</author>
							<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Hillary's Real Opponent: Obama]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/04/obama-approval-ratings-swing-states-117019.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/04/obama-approval-ratings-swing-states-117019.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 17 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Kyle Kondik</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The two factors that might be most vital to Hillary Clinton'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s chances'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';'the identity of the eventual Republican nominee and the standing of President Obama'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';'are elements over which she has little influence. It'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s the second factor, Obama'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s job approval rating, that...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Rand Paul: Barry Goldwater 2.0?]]></title>
							<link>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/rand-paul-barry-goldwater-2-0/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/rand-paul-barry-goldwater-2-0/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 22 Aug 2013 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Kyle Kondik</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was asked recently what he would do in the event of a 2016 presidential contest between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY). '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('œ').';'It'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s gonna be a tough choice,'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('�').';' he said with a laugh.McCain'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s ambivalence about a...]]></description>
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