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<title><![CDATA[Nate Silver - Articles - RealClearPolitics]]></title><link>http://www.RealClearPolicy.com/authors/rss/archive/16191.xml</link><description><![CDATA[Nate Silver]]></description><category domain="16191">Author</category><item>
							<title><![CDATA[What To Make of Michigan's Dem Senate Primary]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/what-to-make-of-michigan</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/what-to-make-of-michigan]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Abdul El-Sayed's apparent victory is a big win for the left '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' but a disaster for polling and a case study in poor expectations management.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[The DSA Sweet Spot: Highly Educated, Downwardly Mobile]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-dsa-sweet-spot-highly-educated</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-dsa-sweet-spot-highly-educated]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2026 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Education and economic security are usually correlated. But where the relationship breaks down is fertile territory for the new left.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[12 Questions for the Center-Left]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/12-questions-for-the-center-left</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/12-questions-for-the-center-left]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 16 Jul 2026 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The center-left offers an alternative to both the left and the Democratic establishment. But it's losing influence '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' and struggling to define itself.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Democrats Should Have Shut Down the Government]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-should-have-shut-it-down</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-should-have-shut-it-down]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Mon, 17 Mar 2025 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[I'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'ve been working hard'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' getting our NCAA Tournament forecasts ready'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' for Selection Sunday. So I'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'d barely been paying attention to the drama in the Senate, where Republicans were'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' trying to gather votes'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' for a budget resolution to avert a government shutdown by midnight...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Polling, Like the NYT/Siena Polls, Is Not the Problem]]></title>
							<link>https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/opinion/polling-election-trump-harris.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/opinion/polling-election-trump-harris.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Wed, 20 Nov 2024 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Why it can't fix our messy politics.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[The 2024 Election Isn't a Toss-Up: Trump Is the Favorite]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-presidential-election-isnt-a</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-presidential-election-isnt-a]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Wed, 26 Jun 2024 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[As our model launches, either Biden or Trump could easily win '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' but the odds are in the ex-president's favor.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[What Biden's Debate Gambit Reveals]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/what-bidens-debate-gambit-reveals</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/what-bidens-debate-gambit-reveals]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 16 May 2024 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The White House gets an A+ on tactics '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' but they're playing a mediocre hand.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Your Friends Aren't a Representative Sample of Public Opinion]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/your-friends-are-not-a-representative</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/your-friends-are-not-a-representative]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 14 May 2024 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[It's not just Republicans who are at risk of epistemic closure.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Skip the Ivy League and Go to a State School]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/go-to-a-state-school</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/go-to-a-state-school]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Wed, 24 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The Ivy League and other elite private colleges are losing esteem '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' and they deserve it.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Justice Sotomayor's Retirement Is a Political IQ Test]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/sonia-sotomayors-retirement-is-a</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/sonia-sotomayors-retirement-is-a]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Wed, 10 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Are you into politics to win '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' or to feel good about yourself?]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Americans Love Florida, Even If You Don't]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/americans-love-florida-even-if-you</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/americans-love-florida-even-if-you]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Mon, 08 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The rate of]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Democrats Are Hemorrhaging Support With Voters of Color]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-are-hemorrhaging-support</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-are-hemorrhaging-support]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 15 Mar 2024 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The trend is real in polls, and in at least some election results.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Biden's Problem Is With Swing Voters, Not With His Base]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/bidens-problem-is-with-swing-voters</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/bidens-problem-is-with-swing-voters]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Sun, 03 Mar 2024 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The political landscape has shifted since 2012, and a turnout-over-persuasion strategy may not work for Democrats.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Google Abandoned 'Don't Be Evil'--and Gemini Is the Result]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/google-abandoned-dont-be-evil-and</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/google-abandoned-dont-be-evil-and]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 29 Feb 2024 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[AI labs need to treat accuracy, honesty and unbiasedness as core values.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[It's Time for the White House To Put Up or Shut Up]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/its-time-for-the-white-house-to-put</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/its-time-for-the-white-house-to-put]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 20 Feb 2024 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Shielding Biden from public appearances might be a rational strategy -- and that's why it's a bad sign.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Biden Isn't Losing Because of Bad Economic Vibes]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/biden-isnt-losing-because-of-bad</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/biden-isnt-losing-because-of-bad]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 13 Feb 2024 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[In other news, I have a'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' guest essay'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' in the New York Times that evaluates consumer confidence data in some detail and considers what it means for President Biden'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s re-election prospects. When I started looking at this data late last year, I thought it presented an optimistic case...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Not Everything Is #ButHerEmails]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/not-everything-is-butheremails</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/not-everything-is-butheremails]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 08 Feb 2024 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The media has changed a lot since 2016. Progressive complaints about it have turned into The Big Cope.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Slouching Towards Trump]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/slouching-towards-trump</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/slouching-towards-trump]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Sun, 14 Jan 2024 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[I wish I could write to you with more enthusiasm about the Iowa caucuses.'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';']]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[It's Probably Too Late Not To Nominate Biden]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/its-probably-too-late-not-to-nominate</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/its-probably-too-late-not-to-nominate]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 28 Sep 2023 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[None of the answers are obvious when you have an 80-year-old president.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[It's Gonna Be a Long and Tedious Road to November 2024]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/its-gonna-be-a-very-long-and-exceptionally</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/its-gonna-be-a-very-long-and-exceptionally]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 08 Sep 2023 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[There are two strategies to stay sane: ignore the horse race for now, or pace yourself.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[DeSantis' Electoral Track Record Is Worse Than I Thought]]></title>
							<link>https://www.natesilver.net/p/ron-desantiss-electoral-track-record</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://www.natesilver.net/p/ron-desantiss-electoral-track-record]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 25 Jul 2023 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[A semi-mea culpa. He had a great re-election campaign in 2022. The rest of his track record isn't so hot.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[How Our 2022 Midterm Forecasts Performed]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2022-midterm-forecasts-performed/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2022-midterm-forecasts-performed/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Sun, 05 Feb 2023 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Let'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s get this out of the way up front: There was a wide gap between the'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' perception'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' of how well polls and data-driven forecasts did in 2022 and the reality of how they did '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('¦').';' and the reality is that they did pretty well.'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';']]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Why a State Like Michigan Might Actually Be a Blue State]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-state-like-michigan-might-actually-be-a-blue-state/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-state-like-michigan-might-actually-be-a-blue-state/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 09 Sep 2022 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Is Michigan a red state or a blue state? '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('œ').';'It'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s a purple state,'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('�').';' you might say! But sorry, I'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'m not going to let you off so easily. You have to pick the'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' red pill or the blue pill.'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';']]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Why Trump's Presence in the Midterms Is Risky for GOP]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-trumps-presence-in-the-midterms-is-risky-for-the-gop/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-trumps-presence-in-the-midterms-is-risky-for-the-gop/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 06 Sep 2022 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Upset Democratic special election wins in'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' Alaska'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' and'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' New York'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' over the past two weeks are the latest sign that the political environment might be unusual for a midterm election. Frankly, the results since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade have'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' looked more like 2018 than...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[NH Is Tiny and Pretty Weird. That Could Help Hassan]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/new-hampshire-is-tiny-and-pretty-weird-that-could-help-maggie-hassan/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/new-hampshire-is-tiny-and-pretty-weird-that-could-help-maggie-hassan/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 26 Jul 2022 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The factor that could help Republicans most is that New Hampshire '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' famous for polling leads that seem to evaporate overnight, like'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' Barack Obama'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s against Hillary Clinton'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s in the Democratic primary there in 2008'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' is'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' notoriously swingy. I don'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'t just mean...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[GOP Favored To Win House, But Not Senate]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-republicans-are-favored-to-win-the-house-but-not-the-senate/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-republicans-are-favored-to-win-the-house-but-not-the-senate/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Republicans are substantial favorites to take over the U.S. House of Representatives following this November'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s midterm elections, but the U.S. Senate is much more competitive, according to'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' FiveThirtyEight'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s 2022 midterm election forecast, which launched today. Democrats are...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Relax, Democrats. Biden Can Still Win If He Loses Pennsylvania]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2020 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Michigan and Wisconsin have been the focus of a lot of attention from nervous Democrats for the past four years, in part because Hillary Clinton spent'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' relatively little time there'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' and lost both states in 2016. So if you told Democrats that Joe Biden would be'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' up by 7 points in...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[The Economy Was Trump's One Remaining Advantage. He Blew It]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-economy-was-trumps-one-remaining-advantage-now-he-might-have-blown-it/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-economy-was-trumps-one-remaining-advantage-now-he-might-have-blown-it/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Wed, 07 Oct 2020 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[President Trump was'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' already in a deep electoral hole'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' following the first debate, but one remaining bright spot for him was the economy. So'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' calling on Republican leaders to end talks with Democrats on another stimulus package'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' as Trump did on Tuesday '&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('”').';' would seem like a...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Trump's Chances Are Dwindling. That Could Make Him Dangerous]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-chances-are-dwindling-that-could-make-him-dangerous/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-chances-are-dwindling-that-could-make-him-dangerous/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 01 Oct 2020 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[President Trump'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s quest to win a second term is not in good shape. He entered Tuesday night'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('™').';'s debate with roughly a'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' 7- or 8-point deficit in national polls, putting him'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' further behind at this stage of the race'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';' than any other candidate since Bob Dole in 1996.'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('‚').';']]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Sanders and Media Learned Wrong Lessons From Trump in 2016]]></title>
							<link>https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sanders-and-the-media-learned-the-wrong-lessons-from-trump-in-2016/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sanders-and-the-media-learned-the-wrong-lessons-from-trump-in-2016/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 10 Apr 2020 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Nate Silver</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The ['&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('¦').';'] pitch is a mix of idealism and a shouting anger about the system, but at its heart is a hard-nosed math: He's the only candidate with a sizable chunk'&#'.ord('Ã').';''&#'.ord('¢').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('€').';''&#'.ord('Â').';''&#'.ord('¦').';']]></description>
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