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<title><![CDATA[Larry Sabato - Articles - RealClearPolitics]]></title><link>http://www.RealClearPolicy.com/authors/rss/archive/14706.xml</link><description><![CDATA[Larry Sabato]]></description><category domain="14706">Author</category><item>
							<title><![CDATA[10 Factors That Will Determine Next President]]></title>
							<link>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ten-factors-that-will-determine-the-next-president/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ten-factors-that-will-determine-the-next-president/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Sat, 26 Dec 2015 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Here&rsquo;s a thought experiment: What if Republicans nominated the 2012 version of Mitt Romney &mdash; same fundraising, same baggage, same everything &mdash; at their 2016 convention? What sort of odds would that candidate have in 2016? We suspect the candidate would be a small...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Bevin Has Squandered His Edge in KY]]></title>
							<link>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/kentucky-governor-with-a-month-to-go-bevin-has-squandered-his-edge/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/kentucky-governor-with-a-month-to-go-bevin-has-squandered-his-edge/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 2015 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[For months we&rsquo;ve argued that Kentucky&rsquo;s increasing lean toward the Republican Party and the state&rsquo;s antipathy toward President Barack Obama gave businessman Matt Bevin, the Republican nominee, a generic edge in the open Kentucky gubernatorial race. While Bevin is not a...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[The Key to Winning Down-Ballot Races]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/down-ticket-races-2016-213138</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/down-ticket-races-2016-213138]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Mon, 14 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Down-ballot races are increasingly decided by who wins the White House. To grasp this fact, it&rsquo;s best to focus on two numbers: 6 percent and .781.The first number is the total percentage of House districts that voted for different parties for president and for U.S. House in 2012....]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Eight Factors That Matter in 2016 Race]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/the-truth-about-the-2016-race-213121</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/the-truth-about-the-2016-race-213121]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 08 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The rise of Donald Trump might represent some massive sea change in American politics&mdash;but it&rsquo;s far more likely he will fade long before the primary season does. Thanks to Trump, August was a blockbuster month for the political press, but most of what is happening now...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Jeb Bush Is Meaner Than He Looks]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/07/jeb-bush-2016-mean-120364.html?hp=t1_r#.Va4hOvlVhBc</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/07/jeb-bush-2016-mean-120364.html?hp=t1_r#.Va4hOvlVhBc]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Like father, like son&mdash;or perhaps it&rsquo;s the apple doesn&rsquo;t fall far from the tree. Whatever clich&#195;&#169; you prefer, one of the useful things about dynasties is that patterns emerge over time. With the Clintons, for instance, we know to pay attention to every modifying word and...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Let Them Debate: Cable News Shouldn't Decide]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/07/debate-presidential-republican-2016-120260.html?ml=m_t3_2h#.Vajbwfl3mUm</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/07/debate-presidential-republican-2016-120260.html?ml=m_t3_2h#.Vajbwfl3mUm]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[It will be easy this year to identify the biggest losers in the GOP debates. They will be the candidates who aren&rsquo;t on the stage.With a record 17 prominent candidates vying for the Republican nomination (so far), no system for determining admission to the debate stage will please...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[11 Angles on the Electoral College]]></title>
							<link>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-map-11-angles-on-the-electoral-college/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-map-11-angles-on-the-electoral-college/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Sat, 09 May 2015 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Hillary's Real Opponent: Obama]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/04/obama-approval-ratings-swing-states-117019.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/04/obama-approval-ratings-swing-states-117019.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 17 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The two factors that might be most vital to Hillary Clinton&rsquo;s chances&mdash;the identity of the eventual Republican nominee and the standing of President Obama&mdash;are elements over which she has little influence. It&rsquo;s the second factor, Obama&rsquo;s job approval rating,...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Why This Scandal Won't Hurt Clinton]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/03/hillary-email-scandal-history-116262.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/03/hillary-email-scandal-history-116262.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Mon, 23 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Admit it: You love a juicy scandal. We claim to be high-minded and policy-oriented, but our noses are buried in the accounts of the latest political calamity&mdash;and we read those stories before anything else.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Can Democrats Retake the Senate in 2016?]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/03/senate-elections-2016-115674.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/03/senate-elections-2016-115674.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 03 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[The Republican Party's 2016 Edge]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/02/2016-gop-edge-114919_full.html#.VNYy-fnF-k4</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/02/2016-gop-edge-114919_full.html#.VNYy-fnF-k4]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Sat, 07 Feb 2015 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[The campaign shifted into full swing on December 16, when former Florida governor Jeb Bush announced that he would &ldquo;actively explore the possibility of running for president,&rdquo; and it accelerated with Mitt Romney&rsquo;s double January bombshell that he was considering, then...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[President 2016: The New World Order]]></title>
							<link>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-new-world-order/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-new-world-order/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 08 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Well, that didn&rsquo;t last long! By that, we mean our pre-Christmas ordering of the GOP presidential field. We shouldn&rsquo;t be surprised. Politics never takes a long holiday break anymore.First prize for early maneuvering goes to Jeb Bush. His unexpected, all-but-in announcement on...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Why a Party May Be Better Off Losing the WH]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/12/presidents-bad-for-their-parties-113241.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/12/presidents-bad-for-their-parties-113241.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 02 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Think of the billions the parties must raise to elect a president in 2016. Consider the millions of paid and volunteer man-hours that will be devoted to this enterprise. The White House is the center of the partisan political universe, and Democrats and Republicans alike measure success...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Why Americans Hate the Polls]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/10/skewed-111646.html?hp=l6#.VDPOrCm0-R7</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/10/skewed-111646.html?hp=l6#.VDPOrCm0-R7]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2014 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right?&rdquo; &mdash;Comedy writer Robert Orben, who once penned speeches for President Ford.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[How Big a Wave in 2014?]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/05/2014-midterm-gop-wave-106598.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/05/2014-midterm-gop-wave-106598.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 13 May 2014 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Last week, Republican primary voters passed their first Senate test, producing a North Carolina nominee, Thom Tillis, who is merely imperfect, not catastrophic. After the disasters of recent years, national Republicans will happily take it.]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Hillary Clinton Is No Slam Dunk in 2016]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/hillary-clinton-2016-elections-102400.html?ml=m_t1_2h</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/hillary-clinton-2016-elections-102400.html?ml=m_t1_2h]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 21 Jan 2014 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Could Hillary Clinton be the next Richard Nixon? Now that&#194;&#146;s a provocative question, but it isn&#194;&#146;t quite what you think.The other day, I watched Hillary and Bill Clinton take in their close friend Terry McAuliffe&#194;&#146;s inauguration as governor of Virginia. Neither Clinton spoke, but their...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Republicans Really Could Win It All This Year]]></title>
							<link>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/midterm-elections-republicans-really-could-win-2014-101802.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/midterm-elections-republicans-really-could-win-2014-101802.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 07 Jan 2014 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Another midterm election beckons, and over the next 10 months we&#194;&#146;ll see headlines about a thousand supposedly critical developments&#194;&#151;the &#194;&#147;game changers&#194;&#148; and the &#194;&#147;tipping points.&#194;&#148; But we all know there aren&#194;&#146;t a thousand powerful drivers of the vote. I&#194;&#146;d argue that three factors are...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Obama Is Right to Boast of His Success on Bin Laden]]></title>
							<link>http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/01/opinion/sabato-obama-campaign/index.html?hpt=op_t1</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/01/opinion/sabato-obama-campaign/index.html?hpt=op_t1]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Tue, 01 May 2012 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Politics is a contact sport, and presidents tend to get tackled on every play, even the ones they've executed perfectly.There is no better example than the criticism being hurled at President Obama for the killing of Osama bin Laden. It was a daring mission, fraught with peril for the...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[What's the Magic Number for Reelection?]]></title>
							<link>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/LJS2011070701/</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/LJS2011070701/]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[A recent New York Times story ricocheted around the political community after opening with this revelatory sentence: &ldquo;No American president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has won a second term in office when the unemployment rate on Election Day topped 7.2 percent.&rdquo;There is...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[The Crystal Ball's Labor Day Predictions]]></title>
							<link>http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/09/02/the_crystal_balls_labor_day_predictions_106988.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/09/02/the_crystal_balls_labor_day_predictions_106988.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 02 Sep 2010 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[For decades I've advised students to let the facts speak for themselves, while avoiding the indulgence of shouting at the facts. In other words, we should take in all the available, reliable information; process it; and let the emerging mosaic tell its story-whether the picture pleases...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Senate 2010: More Shocks on the Way?]]></title>
							<link>http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/01/22/senate_2010_more_shocks_on_the_way_99989.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/01/22/senate_2010_more_shocks_on_the_way_99989.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 22 Jan 2010 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[With Tuesday night's upset by Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts, the GOP gained more than just a 41st vote to disrupt the Obama agenda. As attention turns to the midterm elections in November, the Republican Party has strong momentum. A few months ago, even GOP leaders said that...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Top Journalists: Insiders or Outsiders?]]></title>
							<link>http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/07/30/are_the_top_journalists_insiders_or_outsiders.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/07/30/are_the_top_journalists_insiders_or_outsiders.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 31 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Are the Top Journalists Insiders or Outsiders?]]></title>
							<link>http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/07/31/are_the_top_journalists_insiders_or_outsiders.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/07/31/are_the_top_journalists_insiders_or_outsiders.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 31 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Something truly astonishing appeared in a Washington Post column on July 25, 2009. It was written by Frank Mankiewicz, former press secretary to Senator Robert F. Kennedy (D-NY) and the man who is perhaps most widely remembered for announcing RFK's death in June 1968. Mankiewicz was also...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Off-Off-Year Elections: They Seem Important at the Time]]></title>
							<link>http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/06/19/off-off-year_elections_97076.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/06/19/off-off-year_elections_97076.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Fri, 19 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[People who live for politics appreciate what real votes in real elections mean. It's pure heroin for junkies.
There is no cold turkey like the one between the end of a presidential election and the midterm election that occurs two full years later. The presidential high--the flood of...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Lessons Spoke to Nation's Mood]]></title>
							<link>http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/opinion/oped.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2008-11-17-0041.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/opinion/oped.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2008-11-17-0041.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Mon, 17 Nov 2008 00:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Meet the New Map--Same as the Old Map (Almost)]]></title>
							<link>http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/meet_the_new_mapsame_as_the_ol.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/meet_the_new_mapsame_as_the_ol.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 18 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[In early summer, the Crystal Ball took its first look at the likely November 4th Electoral College map. Our assessment was that, in the College at least, the contest appeared close. John McCain had 174 solid or likely electoral votes to Barack Obama's 200 solid or likely. The lead...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[Vice President Tim Kaine?]]></title>
							<link>http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/vice_president_tim_kaine.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/vice_president_tim_kaine.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jul 2008 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[We have no earthly idea if Virginia Governor Tim Kaine is Obama's choice for Vice President. All we know is that distinguished reporters who claim to have good sources are calling and saying that Kaine is on the short-short list.Since the Crystal Ball is based in Virginia, and since we...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[November's Electoral College Map]]></title>
							<link>http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/novembers_electoral_college_ma.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/novembers_electoral_college_ma.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 10 Jul 2008 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[Nobody now knows the exact contours of the November 4th Electoral College map. Nobody will know them until after the polls have closed. But except for the guessing game about the vice presidential nominations, there's no greater fun to be had in July. So the Crystal Ball is pleased to...]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[The '08 Battles for the U.S. Senate]]></title>
							<link>http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/the_08_us_senate_battles.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/the_08_us_senate_battles.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jun 2008 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
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							<title><![CDATA[The Crapshoot of Presidential Politics]]></title>
							<link>http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/the_crapshoot_of_presidential.html</link>
							<guid><![CDATA[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/the_crapshoot_of_presidential.html]]></guid>							
							<pubDate>Thu, 20 Mar 2008 00:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
							<author>Larry Sabato</author>
							<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
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